The Picks - Postseason Week 1
Falcons (-2.5) vs. Cardinals
Of all the opening round matchups coming up this week, this one's got the best storylines by far. Can offensive ROY Matt Ryan continue his torrid pace and advance the Falcons to the next round? Will Anquan Boldin rebound after missing the last couple of weeks and complete that devestating 1-2 punch (along with Larry Fitzgerald)? Will Matt Leinart finally be sober after his no doubt extensive New Year's celebrations? In the end, I like the well-balanced Falcons attack - after following up last year's solid number with another great season, Roddy white is easily a top tier WR, and Michael Turner should be able to do damage against an Arizona D allowing 4.0 yards per carry and over 110 per game on the ground.
Falcons -2.5
Colts vs. Chargers (even)
This one will baffle betters, myself included, until we actually have a result. Both defense are extremely vulnerable this year, and both offenses are high-powered and potent enough to rack up points on anybody. I see this one coming down to the running backs: LT ended the season on a high note with a trio of TDs against Denver, but 2008 was easily his most disappointing season in recent memory. Sproles is a more-than-capable backup, but LT will be leaned on until (if) he proves he's ineffective. On the other sideline, Joseph Addai has battled injuries all season, but like Tomlinson, he looked sharp in the season finale, connecting on a 55-yard TD catch with Manning. Ultimately, I don't trust either of them with the game on the line at this time, and you have to give the QB edge to Peyton, who's been here before and should be comfortable in the big game.
Colts (even)
Ravens (-3.5) vs. Dolphins
The grudge match for Patriots fans. Rather than try to reason this one out from both sides, allow me to explain the ways the Ravens are better than the Dolphins. Defense: Ray Lewis and Ed Reed... 'nuff said. (Actually, not enough said... Baltimore is second in the league against the pass and third against the run. All that's left is for the Ravens to learn the Wildcat plays the 'Fins might throw at them and they're set.) Offensive line: The Ravens are averaging 148.5 running yards per game, good for fourth in the league. Speaking of which... Skill position players: the three-headed monster of McGahee, McClain and Rice is infinitely more impressive than Ronnie and Ricky could hope to be. As far as receivers go, I like the reliable tandem of Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason more than Camarillo and Ginn, and tight end is a wash when Heap is healthy (although Fasano has been very impressive this year). The only spot where the Dolphins are likely better than the Ravens is quarterback; the veteran Pennington has experience on his side, and it wouldn' t be the first time a rookie quarterback got flustered in a big game if Flacco struggles. However, Baltimore can still pull it out if Flacco doesn't live up to the lofty expectations he surpassed in the regular season.
Ravens -3.5
Eagles (-3) vs. Vikings
This one will be fun to watch because of the guys in the backfield: AP and Westbrook. Both teams boast excellent defenses - Eagles: pass (182.1 YPG, 3rd), run (92.2 YPG, 4th) / Vikings: pass (215.6 YPG, 18th), run (76.9 YPG, 4th) - but Philly should be able to stack up against the run as the Minny attack is very one-dimensional (i.e. hand the ball to All Day and let him run the hell out of it). If AP is able to bust off a couple long ones, I think the Vikings have a shot. However, I think the Eagles are too well-rounded to lose here. That is, ouf course, as long as McNabb doesn't get sick or tired or something. I hate going with all favorites as there's always one or two surprise upsets in every round, but whatever, it's not like I'm betting actual money or anything. Oh, wait a second...
Eagles -3
Of all the opening round matchups coming up this week, this one's got the best storylines by far. Can offensive ROY Matt Ryan continue his torrid pace and advance the Falcons to the next round? Will Anquan Boldin rebound after missing the last couple of weeks and complete that devestating 1-2 punch (along with Larry Fitzgerald)? Will Matt Leinart finally be sober after his no doubt extensive New Year's celebrations? In the end, I like the well-balanced Falcons attack - after following up last year's solid number with another great season, Roddy white is easily a top tier WR, and Michael Turner should be able to do damage against an Arizona D allowing 4.0 yards per carry and over 110 per game on the ground.
Falcons -2.5
Colts vs. Chargers (even)
This one will baffle betters, myself included, until we actually have a result. Both defense are extremely vulnerable this year, and both offenses are high-powered and potent enough to rack up points on anybody. I see this one coming down to the running backs: LT ended the season on a high note with a trio of TDs against Denver, but 2008 was easily his most disappointing season in recent memory. Sproles is a more-than-capable backup, but LT will be leaned on until (if) he proves he's ineffective. On the other sideline, Joseph Addai has battled injuries all season, but like Tomlinson, he looked sharp in the season finale, connecting on a 55-yard TD catch with Manning. Ultimately, I don't trust either of them with the game on the line at this time, and you have to give the QB edge to Peyton, who's been here before and should be comfortable in the big game.
Colts (even)
Ravens (-3.5) vs. Dolphins
The grudge match for Patriots fans. Rather than try to reason this one out from both sides, allow me to explain the ways the Ravens are better than the Dolphins. Defense: Ray Lewis and Ed Reed... 'nuff said. (Actually, not enough said... Baltimore is second in the league against the pass and third against the run. All that's left is for the Ravens to learn the Wildcat plays the 'Fins might throw at them and they're set.) Offensive line: The Ravens are averaging 148.5 running yards per game, good for fourth in the league. Speaking of which... Skill position players: the three-headed monster of McGahee, McClain and Rice is infinitely more impressive than Ronnie and Ricky could hope to be. As far as receivers go, I like the reliable tandem of Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason more than Camarillo and Ginn, and tight end is a wash when Heap is healthy (although Fasano has been very impressive this year). The only spot where the Dolphins are likely better than the Ravens is quarterback; the veteran Pennington has experience on his side, and it wouldn' t be the first time a rookie quarterback got flustered in a big game if Flacco struggles. However, Baltimore can still pull it out if Flacco doesn't live up to the lofty expectations he surpassed in the regular season.
Ravens -3.5
Eagles (-3) vs. Vikings
This one will be fun to watch because of the guys in the backfield: AP and Westbrook. Both teams boast excellent defenses - Eagles: pass (182.1 YPG, 3rd), run (92.2 YPG, 4th) / Vikings: pass (215.6 YPG, 18th), run (76.9 YPG, 4th) - but Philly should be able to stack up against the run as the Minny attack is very one-dimensional (i.e. hand the ball to All Day and let him run the hell out of it). If AP is able to bust off a couple long ones, I think the Vikings have a shot. However, I think the Eagles are too well-rounded to lose here. That is, ouf course, as long as McNabb doesn't get sick or tired or something. I hate going with all favorites as there's always one or two surprise upsets in every round, but whatever, it's not like I'm betting actual money or anything. Oh, wait a second...
Eagles -3
Just noticed you have an active comments section! sweet!
Can believe the Chargers beat the Colts... they are on a mission! And so are the Ravens... I think we could have given them a better game than MIA, but they look good on boths sides for once.
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Of course my second day picks go 2-0 and I go 0-2 on Day 1. Sports betting is frustrating.
Good call on the Chargers, I thought there was no way the Colts would lose that game, but Sproles proved me wrong.
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